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Global air cargo demand recorded a significant upswing in April 2025, with a 5.8% year-over-year increase, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The surge was attributed to seasonal demand cycles and a drop in jet fuel prices, both of which played a role in revitalizing shipment volumes. While the numbers signal positive momentum, the outlook remains tempered by geopolitical uncertainties and trade-related disruptions.
What’s fueling the growth
Seasonal Activity Boosts Movement
April traditionally brings heightened air cargo activity, especially across electronics and perishables. Production and supply cycles ramp up during this period, aligning with consumer demand across multiple regions.
Easing Fuel Costs Improve Margins
A notable decline in jet fuel prices has provided relief to airlines, reducing operational costs. This has translated to more competitive freight rates and opened up capacity for additional shipments.
Cross-Border E-commerce Remains Strong
The continued expansion of global e-commerce, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, has kept demand buoyant. Cross-border retail shipments, time-sensitive by nature, continue to rely heavily on air cargo channels.
Risks that cloud the sky
Despite the encouraging figures, industry players remain cautious as several risks come into play:
Tariff Adjustments Impacting Flow
The removal of the “de minimis” tariff exemption for low-value goods from China and Hong Kong has led to a sharp decline in air freight capacity on the China–U.S. corridor—nearly a 30% drop. Carriers like Cathay Pacific and China Southern have been among the most affected.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Ongoing global trade tensions and sanctions continue to complicate shipping routes. These uncertainties can disrupt established lanes, requiring carriers to make strategic adjustments.
Infrastructure and Capacity Constraints
While demand is rising, certain regions continue to face infrastructure limitations that hamper their ability to scale air cargo capacity efficiently.
Looking ahead, IATA forecasts a 5.8% growth in global air cargo demand for the rest of 2025, assuming fuel prices remain stable and trade barriers ease. Much will depend on the industry’s adaptability in the face of changing trade dynamics and its investment in operational resilience.
April’s performance highlights the air cargo sector’s ability to bounce back, even amidst market volatility. However, maintaining this trajectory will require close attention to evolving risks and a proactive approach to managing capacity and compliance challenges.
